The +EV course

Learn

Learn the thinking behind every number in Evergreen.

21 short lessons · ~100 min total

 ~100 min

Education, not betting advice. Nothing here is a prediction and nothing makes a bet a lock. 21+, and only where legal.

Start here

4 lessons

What the numbers mean, and why most people lose without knowing why.

01What +EV actually meansThe one idea the whole thing rests on, in five minutes.5m02Reading the priceAmerican odds, and the probability hiding inside every one of them.4m03Why the board never adds upEvery two-sided market implies more than 100%. That gap is the house's cut.5m04Why nobody sells a winning systemThe picks industry, and the one question that ends every conversation.4m

Finding an edge

5 lessons

Where the money actually comes from, and how to spot it.

05De-vigging: finding the fair priceStripping the margin out of a market to see what it really thinks.6m06Who sets the price, and who followsNot every book's opinion is worth the same, and it is not close.5m07The same bet at five pricesThe most reliable edge in betting, and it requires no opinion at all.4m08Markets with only one sideHome runs, first touchdown scorers, and why the maths runs out.5m09Arbs, and what they're telling youWhen two books disagree so badly that both sides are bettable.5m

Money and risk

5 lessons

How much to bet, how often, and how to know it's working.

10How much to betKelly, fractional Kelly, and the sizing that keeps you in the game.6m11Volume is the strategyWhy the goal is more bets, not better ones.4m12Why a winning bettor loses constantlyWhat a real +EV record looks like, and how to sit through the bad weeks.5m13Betting against yourselfConflict and exposure — the two ways a good day quietly turns bad.5m14Closing line valueThe only feedback in betting that arrives before the results do.6m

Playing for real

7 lessons

Props, parlays, promos, and what happens once you start winning.

15Player propsSofter markets, smaller limits, and where most of the edge lives.5m16Parlays and correlationWhy the payout looks enormous, and the rare case where it's real.5m17Ladder playsWhen a line is mispriced, its alternates usually are too.4m18Promos, boosts and free betsThe easiest money on this list, and it is not close.6m19Getting limited means it's workingThe scoreboard nobody tells you about.4m20When you win enough to owe taxA good problem to have. Here's the short version and who to ask.3m21Staying in controlThe part that matters more than any edge.4m

If you remember nothing else

  1. 1Open and use as many books as are legal where you live. Every account is more prices and more promos, and different books are soft on different things.
  2. 2Use every promo. Profit boosts, no-sweat bets, free bets and odds boosts are money coupons and they are the easiest profit on this list.
  3. 3The only thing that matters is the price. Not who you think wins — the books already priced that in.
  4. 4A parlay of +EV legs is still +EV. Straight bets swing less; the value is the same either way.
  5. 5Treat books as marketplaces, not opponents. The goal is the best number, wherever it is.
  6. 6Never buy picks. Anyone who cannot show a full year of wins and losses at the prices they got is selling content, not edges.
  7. 7Bet quarter Kelly, keep records, and expect to get limited. All three mean you are doing it right.

Try it

Check any betType in a price and a fair line — or de-vig a market yourself.→Size a betYour bankroll and risk level, turned into a suggested stake.→Watch the modelA simulated $1,000 bankroll betting these rules in public.→Look up a termAll 30 terms the app uses, defined in one place.→

Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.