Betting against yourself
Conflict and exposure — the two ways a good day quietly turns bad.
Some days the value is everywhere and it is tempting to take all of it. Before you do, look at what you already have on — because two individually good bets can be a bad pair.
Conflict
You take the game over. Then you take two players to go under on points. Those cannot all be right: if both players go under, the game total is much less likely to clear. Each bet was +EV alone, and together you have quietly bet against yourself.
It happens constantly with a pitcher over on strikeouts and the game under on runs, with a quarterback's passing yards against the opposing defence's numbers, with a team spread against one of its own players' unders. The bets do not have to be exact opposites to fight each other.
Four bets on one game, each of them +EV on its own.
Exposure
No conflict, but you have a unit on three players to go over and a unit on the game total. Now a single low-scoring game loses all four. Nothing was mispriced — you have just concentrated four bets on one outcome, which is a same-game parlay you did not mean to build.
Every extra bet in one game moves you closer to predicting exactly how the night goes, which is precisely the thing nobody can do. If the value is genuinely huge it can still be worth it. Just decide that on purpose rather than by accident.
My Bets lists everything open, so before you add a fourth leg in one game you can see the three already there.
1 of 2
You have the game over, plus two players to go under on points. What have you done?
2 of 2
Four unrelated overs in one game, no conflict between them. What is the problem?
Before every bet, ask what else you have on that game. Concentration is a risk you are not being paid for.
Terms from this lesson
Education, not betting advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.