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165 min read

Parlays and correlation

Why the payout looks enormous, and the rare case where it's real.

A parlay multiplies bets together and every leg must win. The payout grows fast, which is the attraction. So does the book's cut, which is not advertised — each leg carries its own vig, and combining them multiplies the margins as well as the odds. That is why books promote parlays relentlessly and almost never promote sides.

The rule that actually matters

A parlay of +EV legs is still +EV. If every leg beats its fair price, parlaying them keeps the value — you are just accepting far more variance for it. Anyone telling you never to parlay is telling you never to bet a legitimate edge because they dislike the shape. Bet straight if you want smoother results; the value does not disappear either way.

A four-leg parlay of -110 legs pays +1228. Is that a good price?

Same-game parlays and correlation

Legs in the same game are not independent. A star scoring 30+ makes his team winning more likely, so a book prices that pair below what the two prices multiply to — perhaps +280 where separate games would give +430. That is the book charging you for the correlation, and it is usually fair.

The opportunity is where they get it wrong: a book pricing correlated legs as though they were unrelated is handing you value. The trap is the reverse — legs that fight each other, like a player's under with his team's over, which quietly destroys a ticket that looked fine.

Build one and see the real number

The bet slip prices legs together and shows the combined value honestly, including when the parlay is worse than betting the legs separately.

Check yourselfNothing is scored

1 of 3

Four -110 legs hold 4.5% each. What does the four-leg parlay hold?

2 of 3

Every leg of your parlay beats its fair price. Is the parlay +EV?

3 of 3

What makes a same-game parlay dangerous rather than merely expensive?

Price one honestlyBuild a slip and the app shows the combined value — including when the legs are better bet separately.
Takeaway

A parlay of genuine edges is a genuine edge. A parlay built for the payout is a donation.

+EVergreen

Terms from this lesson

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